Research Article

Mathematics Task-Specific Self-Efficacy and Actual Performance among Secondary School Students: Examining the Relationship between Confidence and Accuracy

Yusuf Feyisara Zakariya1*, Esther Vanessa Maina2, Ramatu Ematum Umahaba1, Patience GUYAH1, Safiya Shafiu Muhammed3
1 Department of Science Education, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria
2 Demonstration Secondary School, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria
3 Institute of Education, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria
* Corresponding author: yfzakariya@abu.edu.ng
Published: Oct, 2026
Pages: 136 –147
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Abstract

This study examined the relationship between task-specific mathematics self-efficacy and actual performance among 248 senior secondary school students (111 males, 125 females, 12 missing gender data) in Kaduna state. Unlike studies correlating a global self-efficacy score with a separately administered achievement test, this design elicited students' confidence immediately before each of fifteen multiple-choice mathematics items, using validated self-efficacy (α = .848) and performance (Guttman split-half = .715) instruments, analysed with descriptive and inferential statistics. At the student level, mean confidence correlated weakly with percentage correct (Pearson r = .12, 95% CI [-.01, .25], p = .059; Spearman ρ = .18, p = .007, n = 237). A crossed-random-effects mixed logistic regression linking item-level confidence to correctness showed that higher confidence significantly predicted greater odds of a correct response (OR = 1.06, 95% CI [1.03, 1.09], p < .001), confirmed by a cluster-robust GEE model (OR = 1.06, p = .002). Calibration analysis, however, revealed pronounced positive bias: mean confidence exceeded mean accuracy by .34 (t(236) = 21.46, p < .001), with 93.7% of students overconfident and 62.9% of high-confidence responses (≥7) incorrect. Findings indicate that confidence weakly but reliably discriminates correct from incorrect responses, yet students are substantially overconfident relative to actual performance. Implications for instruction, formative assessment, and self-monitoring are discussed.

Keywords

mathematics self-efficacy task-specific confidence actual performance calibration overconfidence mixed-effects logistic regression secondary school mathematics

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How to Cite

Zakariya, Y. F., Maina, E. V., Umahaba, R. E., GUYAH, P., & Muhammed, S. S. (2026). Mathematics Task-Specific Self-Efficacy and Actual Performance among Secondary School Students: Examining the Relationship between Confidence and Accuracy. Journal of Studies in Science and Mathematics Education, 6(2), 136 –147.

Y. F. Zakariya, E. V. Maina, R. E. Umahaba, P. GUYAH, and S. S. Muhammed, "Mathematics Task-Specific Self-Efficacy and Actual Performance among Secondary School Students: Examining the Relationship between Confidence and Accuracy," Journal of Studies in Science and Mathematics Education, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 136 –147, October 2026.

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